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Refleksje

O wyższości metod fundamentalnych nad porównawczymi

26-10-2008

Dzisiaj wady wycen opartych na średnich mnoĹźnikach grupy porównawczej są juĹź chyba wszystkim znane. Jeszcze kilka miesięcy temu analitycy w swoich raportach rekomendowali KUPUJ dla wielu spółek, które wydawały się WZGLĘDNIE tanie. No właśnie – „względnie”, co oznacza, Ĺźe jak wszystko spadło to i ten nasz ulubiony papier okazał się „względnie” drogi. I cóĹź – wyniki się poprawiły, a kolejna rekomendacja zaleca SPRZEDAJ.

W okresie hossy, a zwłaszcza hossy bez opamiętania, gdy wszyscy wokół kupowali wszystkie akcje nawet nieszczególnie interesując się, co dana spółka robi, a tym bardziej jakie są jej wyniki finansowe czy zadłuĹźenie, zarządzający funduszami akcyjnymi -  nawet jeĹźeli prywatnie mieli odmienne zdanie – po prostu kupowali równieĹź co się da. Popyt czynił cuda więc w tzw. surrealistycznej ekonomi ceny akcji rosły, rosły teĹź i mnoĹźniki, którymi analitycy uzasadniali wzrost cen spółek. Spirala nakręcała się w górę. Rok 2008 przejdzie do historii jako tragiczny dla inwestorów giełdowych. Jakiś impuls ( jaki – to ciekawy temat na niezłą pracę naukową – zapewne ujawnienie „balona” kredytów hipotecznych) odwrócił trend spirali. Akcje nieco spadły, co stało się impulsem do realizacji ponadprzeciętnych zysków, wzrost podaĹźy nie skompensowanej popytem generowanym przez  nowych, naiwnych kandydatów na milionerów giełdowych. To co nastąpiło potem to ciekawy temat dla prac z zakresu psychologii inwestowania, zachować tłumń i istoty paniki. Zostawmy to psychologom. Ale jak ten proces odzwierciedlał się w metodach wyceny fundamentalnej? Prognozy spółek pozostały niezmienione, a więc i przyszły cash flow równieĹź nie uległ zmianie. W wypadku gdy nie zmienił się równieĹź wskaĹşnik stopy wolnej od ryzyka, współczynnik ryzyka sektorowego Beta to zmianie mogła ulec tylko premia za ryzyko gospodarcze ( Equity Risk Premium). Długoterminowe analizy wskazują na wartość tego ryzyka na poziomie 6-7%. Aby jednak uzasadnić rynkową akceptacje cen akcji w hossie z 2007 roku w modelach DCF naleĹźałoby zastosować dramatyczne zmniejszenie tej premii – w wypadku niektórych akcji nawet do zera. Czyli znikomy poziom premii za ryzyko ponad powiedzmy obligacje skarbowe odzwierciedlony w sumarycznym jednocyfrowym poziomie kosztu kapitału własnego. 
A dzisiaj ? W paĹşdzierniku 2008? Niechęć inwestorów do inwestycji w akcje przekłada się wprost na ponadprzeciętną oczekiwaną premię za ryzyko wejścia w akcje. Sentyment inwestorów przegiął się z poprzedniej, nieracjonalnej pozycji (zero ryzyka) w drugą ekstremalną – prawdopodobnie premię ERP na poziomie dwukrotnie wyĹźszej od średniej oczekiwanej, a więc nie 6-7%, ale ponad 10% !  Wstawiając ten poziom ryzyka do wzorów na koszt kapitału własnego w metodzie CAPM lub po prostu sumując kolejne składowe ryzyka dochodzimy w okolice 20% kosztu kapitału własnego co oczywiście wprost przekłada się na wycenę spółek metodą DCF jak i EVA.
W 2002 roku na pewnej konferencji w Szczecinie poświęconej Zarządzaniem Holdingami pozwoliłem sobie na wprowadzenie modyfikacji wzoru na CAPM wprowadzając obok współczynnika Beta definiującego ryzyko sektorowe, współczynnik Alfa, który ustawiony jako parametr tuĹź koło współczynniki ERP modyfikował by jego średnią oczekiwaną wartość w zaleĹźności od sentymentu rynku dla inwestycji w akcje. Parametr Alfa mógł się zmieniać w granicach od 0 do 2 przyjmując wartość 0 w szczytach hossy a współczynnik 2 w szczycie bessy. Dzisiaj poprawne oszacowanie kosztu kapitału własnego jawi się jako bardzo istotne zagadnienie, kluczowe dla właściwej wyceny spółki w danym okresie cyklu koniunkturalnego. 
 

Zygmunt Grajkowski

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  • 2017-22-07 - LouisVom

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  • 2017-24-02 - Timothywhene

    It can be daunting trying to figure out what you need to do once you have been diagnosed with sleep apnea. There are so many new things to learn, and you may feel a bit overwhelmed. Reading this article can provide you with some simple steps to take to make the transition much easier.
    If you suffer from sleep apnea, you should use a Continuous Positive Airway Pressure machine while sleeping. This will help you treat your sleep apnea and get you on the path to having a full nights sleep. This machine uses either a face or nasal mask to pump air while you sleep.
    If you have just been diagnosed with sleep apnea and prescribed a CPAP, join a CPAP support group. It can be quite difficult to get used to sleeping with a mask on your face every night. Sitting in a room full of other people going through the same thing can be very empowering. You can learn from others who have had the same issues you are having and made adjustments to make it work.
    On easy way to help limit your sleep apnea is to stick to regular sleeping hours. When you stick to a sleep schedule that is steady and consistent, you will be more relaxed and sleep much better. Apnea episode frequency will be greatly reduced if you can get plenty of sleep every night.
    Getting a CPAP machine is probably the best option for your sleep apnea. These machines will keep your airways open and help you breathe. You should talk to your doctor about CPAP machines and figure out which model would be the most adapted. This machine should work if you use it properly.
    To help diagnose your sleep apnea, your doctor may ask you to keep a sleep log. This log is where you'll keep track of how much you sleep during the night, and other symptoms you may experience. Your partner can let you know if you snore too loudly, jerk your limbs, or stop breathing. Your doctor will then be able to tell if you suffer from sleep apnea.
    Remember to keep your medical ID upon your person if you make use of a CPAP for your sleep apnea. If you are in need of medical attention, it is important that the people helping you realize you have sleep apnea and use CPAP therapy. With your ID you can inform medical personnel about your sleep apnea and your CPAP device.
    If you have been diagnosed with sleep apnea, it is important to avoid drinking alcohol. Alcoholic beverages will relax the muscles in your throat, which makes it more likely that they will block your airway during your sleep. At the very least, avoid any alcoholic beverages in the evening before you get ready for bed.
    People who use alcohol, sedatives, and sleeping pills are far more likely to suffer from sleep apnea. This is because these drugs will relax the throat and cause their breathing to be impaired. Using these drugs before bedtime is more likely to cause sleep apnea than using these drugs during the day.
    By reading through the great sleep apnea tips found in this article, you are ready to face your problem head on. While you may not be able to rid yourself of the problem completely, you will feel more confident and start working towards that all-important goal, a good night's sleep.
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